A longtime Myanmar watcher explains the deadly Kokang conflict

Kokang rebel fighters from Myanmar stand on the side of a dirt road in Mengding county as they walk as refugees towards the town Nansan, about 40 kilometres away, on September 1, 2009, in China’s southern Yunnan province. AFP/PHILIPPE LOPEZ

Since clashes erupted between Kokang rebels and Myanmar’s armed forces in the north earlier this month, more than 100 people have been killed, including soldiers, rebel fighters and civilians, while Red Cross convoys have been attacked twice. At the same time, thousands have poured across the border into China. The government has declared martial law and on Wednesday the rebels upped the ante by targeting the residence of the local administrator. Information about the Kokang and their history with the government has trickled out as the fighting progresses. Here, Thailand-based author and journalist Bertil Lintner, who has been covering Myanmar affairs for more than 30 years and trekked through northern Myanmar in the 1980s, breaks down the conflict and offers background on the key players. The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.

How would you describe the Kokang?
They are ethnic Han Chinese and speak the Yunnanese dialect of Putonghua (standard Chinese), the same as in the other side of the border. But Kokang has been part of Burma since an agreement between the British and Chinese governments in 1897. The people of Kokang are Myanmar citizens, and they are recognized officially by the Myanmar government as one of the country’s “135 national races”.

What is the Kokang Special Region?
It is a self-administered region comprising the area between the Salween river in the west, the Nam Ting river in the south, and the Chinese border in the east. This area was controlled by the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) from 1968 to 1989, when a mutiny broke out among the non-Bamar rank-and-file of the CPB’s army, and that mutiny broke out first in Kokang in March 1989 and then, in April, spread to the Wa Hills. The ex-CPB forces in Kokang were the first to enter into a ceasefire deal with the Myanmar government, which it did shortly after the March 1989 mutiny. Part of the agreement with the government was that the Kokang forces, now renamed the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) would administer the area and retain its armed forces and weapons.

How big is it roughly, and how many Kokang live there?
Kokang, or the area between the Salween, the Nam Ting and the Chinese border is about 2,500 square kilometres large, or roughly the same as Luxembourg, and about 150,000 people live there. 90 per cent are ethnic Han Chinese, the rest Shan (in the Malipa valley) and a few hill tribes in the mountains. Wikipedia puts the size of Kokang at 10,000 square kilometres, but that is far too much.

Other rebel groups have stopped actively fighting or agreed to ceasefires. What are the Kokang still fighting for?
Those ceasefires are extremely fragile and it’s not only the MNDAA that is fighting with government forces. The Kachin Independence Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA, a Palaung ethnic army) and the Shan State Army-North have also come under attack from Myanmar government forces. So there is no peace in the country, regardless of what some people are claiming. The non-Bamar ethnic armies are fighting for a federal state with local autonomy for their respective areas enshrined in the country’s constitution, which is not the case today.

What was the point of this latest attack?
That is impossible to say at the moment. I think the outbreak of hostilities took most people by surprise.

How much autonomy do the Kokang have in Laukkai, the regional capital?
Laukkai is just the main town in the Kokang self-administered area. Since 1989, it has had its own local government and administered its own affairs. Central government presence has been limited to a garrison near Laukkai, and control over the Chinsweho-crossing into China. But the main crossing from Laukkai in the Malipa valley to Namsan on the Chinese side has been managed by local authorities in Kokang.

When was the last skirmish between the army and the Kokang?
In August 2009 when the Myanmar Army sent troops into Kokang and drove Peng Jiasheng, the present leader of the MNDAA, into exile in China [Editor’s note: Jiasheng’s recent return to the area is thought to have triggered the latest round of attacks].

How large is their army compared to other rebel groups?
Hard to say, but my estimate is about 1,000, so it is much smaller than most other ethnic armies in the area.

Where do they get their weapons?
Under the terms of the 1989 agreement, the MNDAA was allowed to retain its weapons. Since then it has also acquired more modern weapons, which no doubt are made in China. It is not clear, however, if the MNDAA has got those weapons directly from China, or from the United Wa State Army (the main component of the former CPB-forces, which has very close relations with China’s security services.)

How do they pay for their military hardware?
The main source of income in Kokang is narcotics, and that applies to all factions there, including the one that agreed to be transformed into a government-recognised “Border Guard Force”. Peng Jiasheng [the Kokang leader], of course, has been involved in the drug trade since the 1970s.

Who is Peng Jiasheng and what may be motivating him?
He allied himself with the CPB in the late 1960s. He ruled Kokang when it formed part of the CPB-controlled area along the Chinese border, from 1968 to 1989. After that, he entered into an agreement with the Myanmar government represented by the then-Military Intelligence chief Gen. Khin Nyunt. He was driven out of Kokang in the 1990s after a schism with another Kokang clan, the Yangs, but came back and remained in Kokang until August 2009. What motivates him? That is hard to say, and one should bear in mind that he is just a figurehead. A younger generation of Kokang people are in charge, and some of them are political in the sense that they also want a new constitution based on federal principles rather than the present unitary state.

Do they have the support of any other armed groups in theory?
Forces from the TNLA and the Arakan Army are in Kokang as well.

Does China support the group?
Not directly, but people like Peng, of course, have many friends in China.

The government has declared martial law in the region. How long do you think the fighting will last? 
That is hard to say and it is not going to solve the problem. This is a conflict that cannot be solved my military means alone.

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